Monday, October 8, 2007

It Didn't Happen: D'Backs 5-1 win ends Cubs season

NOTE: This is the first of a four part series which will take a look back at the 2007 Chicago Cubs.

PART ONE: Reviewing the NLDS.
PART TWO: Reviewing the 2007 season.
PART THREE: Looking forward to 2008.
PART FOUR: What the 2007 Cubs meant to me.


To me, there is nothing more eerie than a victory celebration in front of a silent capacity crowd.

That's what Cubs fans had to see as Jose Valverde recorded the final out of the Diamondbacks 5-1 victory.

In recapping this game and this series as a whole, I'm not sure where to begin because so much went wrong.

First, you have to give the D'Backs all of the credit in the world. I guess there was some weight behind those NL leading 90 wins. They beat the Cubs at all phases of the game.

Next, you have to acknowledge the tale of two advanced scouting departments. The D'Backs obviously took notice of every scouting report and used it to their advantage.

For example in game one, Brandon Webb threw a week's worth of slow breaking balls to a team that is a notorious fastball hitting team. Throughout the series, the D'Backs jumped on fastballs early in the count--notably Chris Young's lead-off, first pitch home run off Rich Hill.

On the other hand, that is where the Cubs failed. They failed to capitalize on the wildness of Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez, in two must-win games for the Cubs.

But that's only part of the reason they got swept.

Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, the heavy hitters that carried the Cubs in September didn't hit one home run. They were out homered by Stephen Drew for crying out loud!

Drew, along with teammate Augie Ojeda will soon find themselves on the official list of Cub killers. Ojeda is deserving of the Steve Garvey Award (Post Season Cub Killing) with his .444 average, which is .212 points higher than his career average.

The only Cubs home run came off the bat of Geovany Soto--and it was the only time the Cubs scored more than one run in an inning.

Yet, another reason behind the Cubs failure.

Upon further review of this series, the only Cub to step up and do something worth a darn was Carlos Zambrano--the guy that everyone was most worried about. Think about it, Big Z was composed and dominant in the best 85 pitches I've ever seen him throw.

And now, two former expansion teams (one of which I called a sabermetrical aberration) will be competing for the NLCS, beginning on Thursday.

While the best 85-win, division championship team that $300 million could buy is sitting at home.

Waiting 'til next year, again.

Friday, October 5, 2007

Make History Or We're History!

Pop quiz: When was the last time the Cubs won three playoff games in a row?

Answer: Games two, three and four of the 2003 NLCS.

I guess it's pretty hard to remember, especially when the Marlins won the next three and went on to win the World Series.

Impossible, no. Improbable, maybe. Winning the next three games against a very confident club won't be easy. But don't forget, nothing comes easy if you're a Cubs fan. Not this year, not any year.

I, for one, am surprised the Cubs are down 0-2 in the NLDS. But maybe I shouldn't be.

The Diamonbacks first two starters came into the NLDS with a combined career record of 11-6 with a 2.96 ERA against the Cubs.

I thought the Cubs would at least come back to Wrigley tied 1-1 with a pivitol game three on Saturday afternoon. Game three is still important, in fact, more important than ever!

Game three's motto is simple: "Make history, or we're history."

The last team to come back from an 0-2 hole to win a divisional series was the 2003 Boston Red Sox who beat the Oakland A's and their aces Tim Hudson and Barry Zito in games four and five.

However, no National League team has ever come back to win a NLDS after being down 0-2.

I guess it's time for the Cubs to make history in a good way.

It's not going to be easy. First the Cubs must win the ultimate "must-win game" with lefty Rich Hill on the mound and beat Livan Hernandez and the D'Backs on Saturday afternoon. Then, on short rest, Carlos Zambrano must beat Micah Owings--who is more feared at the plate than on the mound. And finally, if the Cubs can even force it to game five they'll have to send the recently shelled Ted Lilly on short rest against last year's Cy Young Award winner, Brandon Webb.

YIKES!

Being a Cubs fan has taught me one thing over the years, and that is to expect the unexpected. And usually, when I think the Cubs are out they give you a glimmer a hope.

Hopefully the D'Backs will give an inch, and the Cubs will take the mile.

Cubs Suffer In Case Of The Ex: Go Down 0-2 in NLDS

A game like this is a microcosm of what Chicago Cubs baseball is all about.

And that's not a good thing.

The Arizona Diamondbacks 8-4 victory over the Cubs in game two of the NLDS was a pretty easy game to analyze, so this post should be relatively short.

The Cubs took an early 2-0 lead in the top of the second inning when catcher Geovany Soto hit a two-run home run off of D'Backs starter Doug Davis.

However, they gave it right back in the bottom of the second. And this is where the case of the ex strikes.

CASE OF THE EX PART ONE: Ex-Sox farmhand Chris Young hit a three-run home run off of Cubs starter Ted Lilly to give the D'Backs the 3-2 lead and gave White Sox fans the joy of knowing they are indirectly responsible for the Cubs game two woes.

CASE OF THE EX PART TWO: Former Cub utility infielder Augie Ojeda went 2-for-4, raising his NLDS average to .571. Ojeda hit .182 during his short Cubs career.

CASE OF THE EX PART THREE: Another former Cub, pitcher Juan Cruz, pitched 1/3 of an inning. That one-third of an inning--a strikeout of Alfonso Soriano.

ACCORDING TO DICK, GAME TWO: I'll keep this short and simple. Hey, TBS--FIRE DICK STOCKTON!!!! He repeatedly insinuated that Soriano was limping and that he was playing hurt. I've been watching Soriano since his return from the quad injury--and he looks better now than when he first came back. It's obvious to me that Stockton is out of place calling these games. This isn't mid-90's NFL on Fox. This isn't the 1980's NBA Finals. It's the 2007 MLB playoffs---there's no reason for Dick to be broadcasting these games.

The Cubs are on their way back to Chicago for game three (and hopefully four) of the NLDS. They'll send lefty Rich Hill against the crafty playoff veteran Livan Hernandez with this thought in mind:

"Make history, or we're history."

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Cubs-D'Backs Preview: Game Two

After Diamondbacks closer Jose Valverde recorded the final out of their 3-1 victory over the Cubs, Cubdom went into classic panic mode.

Locally, nationally and seemingly everywhere in between, the topic of the day was whether Cubs manager Lou Piniella made the right decision pulling starter Carlos Zambrano after only throwing 85 pitches.

It seems as if a majority of people out there believe that Piniella screwed the pooch on that one. The Chicago Sun-Times said it was a Lou-sing call. Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune said that Piniella's quick hook was costly, arguing that by not opting to use Jason Marquis in game four may come back to haunt the Cubs.

The verdict: I am going to side with Piniella on this one. Knowing that Zambrano is going to have to pitch game four, Piniella made the right move for the situation (being that the Cubs are going with a three-man rotation.) Piniella's been making these moves all year, at least he's been consistent and has a reasoning behind what he did--unlike past Cubs managers.

Also, take this into account. Coming into the game, Carlos Marmol, who took the loss in game one, had only given up a combined four runs in August and September. That's 30 2/3 innings with 43 strikeouts and an ERA under 1.20. It's not like he was bringing out Dave Veres, Antonio Alfonseca or Mark Guthrie.

Also take into account that the Cubs offense didn't score a run after the sixth inning. Big Z coulda pitched the rest of the game. The Cubs didn't score, and you can't win if you don't score!

Moving on from last nights game with these final notes:
  • 1-10 with runners in scoring position is not going to get it done. There is hope for the Cubs offense who hit several line-drives right at people, which prevented potential runs from scoring. Hopefully tonight those shots will find some holes.
  • Stephen Drew is officially on my baseball sh*t-list. Drew hit another clutch home run against the Cubs and made several Gold Glove caliber defensive plays which saved a few runs from scoring. And to top that off, he's a Drew--and with that comes BCB's great headline "Funny, he doesn't look Drewish."
  • I'm just gonna come out and say it now--TBS broadcasting sucks. Did any of the head honchos realize that this is the MLB playoffs, not the NFL on FOX. Dick Stockton has no place in a baseball booth. I'd rather hear Tim McCarver's nonsense than Dick's. Take note of Dick's Dumb Remarks (might be a new segment, According to Dick):
    • Tonight's starter for the D'Backs is Ron (not Doug) Davis.
    • D'Backs outfielder Chris Young led MLB rookies in home runs (Ryan Braun and his 34 HRs would disagree.)
    • The Cubs traded Michael Barrett for Jason Kendall. Funny, that's not how I remember it. Mikey B. was traded to San Diego for Rob Bowen in June, and in July Bowen was traded to Oakland for Kendall.
PREVIEWING TONIGHT'S GAME

I spent a lot of time reviewing game one, so I'll keep it relatively short for game two.

The Cubs will send Theodore Roosevelt Lilly A.K.A. "Mr. Neversmile" in what is definitely a must win game for the Cubs. Teddy truly has been the Cubs stopper this year with a 9-1 record in 16 starts after a Cubs loss.

The D'Backs will counter with Doug Davis. Davis is a certified Cub killer. He owns a 7-5 lifetime record with a 3.39 ERA against the Cubs. Davis out dueled Lilly in August at Chase Field, striking out eight Cubs in the process.

The Cubs will likely have a different looking line-up tonight.
  • Mark DeRosa (career .301 against LHP) might bat second against Davis.
  • Matt Murton (career .400 against Davis) will likely get the start in right field.
  • Jacque Jones (career .294 against Davis) will probably start in center field and bat eighth.
  • Kendall (career .313 against Davis) should get the nod behind the plate.
After the game ended, Cubs fan and producer of the documentary Chasing October: A Fan's Crusade Matt Liston left this bulletin on the popular networking site myspace.com:

It's only one game. This series will go all the way to game 5.

Take a breath...let's WIN tomorrow.

JUST BELIEVE,
Matt


I echo Matt's sentiments. Let's go out and win game two and shut everyone up!

Remember, "It's Gonna Happen!"

TAKING THE EXTRA BASE:

Sox fans now have another reason to hate Sun-Times columnist Jay Mariotti. Mariotti echoes the sentiments of people with thoughts with this simple statement: "Grow Up."

Game One Recap: D'Backs 3 Cubs 1

I waited four years for this.

Four years after I suffered the most heart breaking moment of my life, the Cubs came out and lost game one of the 2007 NLDS.

Pitching on both sides dominated the game. Brandon Webb (1-0) picked up the win when the Diamondbacks scored two runs off of reliever Carlos Marmol (0-1) in the bottom of the 7th inning.

The D'Backs scored two of their runs off of long home runs from Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds. Drew, a .238 hitter in 2007 and Reynolds--known to D'Back fans as MarKKKKK--for striking out nine-straight times--tying a major league record.

Carlos Zambrano, who is now winless in his five playoff starts, was the "Big Z" that I wish could show up for 33 starts a year. He struck out eight and only walked one while throwing only 85 pitches.

While some will criticize manager Lou Piniella for pulling "Z" after only 85 pitches, take into consideration that he has to pitch game four (which WILL be necessary) and that Marmol was dominant in his first full campaign as a reliever.

Now, after Marmol's last two outings, I'm worried that "Marmol-aid" is tiring down the stretch. His slider is hanging more often than not--and when his slider hangs it gets hit and hit hard!

The Cubs offense could only scratch out one run off of Webb. Not surprising, especially after taking into consideration that Webb had a 4-1 career record against the Cubs coming into the NLDS.

The Cubs biggest offensive problem wasn't getting people on base, instead it was driving them in. They left 17 guys on base tonight. 17 under the "LOB" column in the scorecard isn't gonna win many games (if any!)

I'll be honest, I didn't give the Cubs much of a chance against B-Webb (knowing his past record againt the Cubs) and while taking that into consideration---that makes game two even bigger.

The Cubs will throw Ted Lilly a.k.a. "Mr. Neversmile" against the D'Backs Doug Davis--whose career ERA against the Cubs is under four.

Expect some changes in the Cub line-up tomorrow night. I think Mark DeRosa will bat second tomorrow night (batting .283 against lefties) with Jacque Jones hitting 8th and Matt Murton getting the start in right field (batting .319 against lefties this year.)

Contrary to popular belief, I'm not going to get too down about this loss.

MY PREDICTION: The sun will rise tomorrow, and the Cubs will win game two!

Don't give up the faith!

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Playoff Preview: NLDS Game One

And then there was one.

After watching the Red Sox end their 86-year championship drought in 2004 and watching their cross-town rival White Sox celebrate the end of their own championship drought with a ticker-tape parade downtown, the Chicago Cubs will take their first step towards their first World Series since 1908 tonight at Chase Field when they visit the NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks.

The D'Backs will go into this series with the Cubs owning the NL's best record with 90 wins, despite being outscored. Seems like a sabermetrical aberration to me--but that's another discussion for another day.

This will be the Cubs first playoff appearance since 2003, and already "Curse Talk" has begun.

This morning's edition of SportsCenter dedicated 10 minutes revisiting billy goats, black cats and Bartmans. Several mlb.com reports lead with talk about "reversing the curse." And to be honest, there are a lot of Cubs fans who are waiting for the other shoe to drop.

I, myself did not believe in curses until after the 2003 season. And I didn't even fall for it after the Bartman game.

I truly began to believe in what some would call "nonsense" after a completely healthy Kerry Wood collapsed in front of my eyes.

When Mark Prior a.k.a "Mr. Perfect Mechanics" and Wood spent major chunks of the 2004 season on the disabled list. And Sammy Sosa found himself on the DL with "the sneeze heard 'round 'The Chi'."

There was just too much evidence in front of my eyes at that point to not credit supernatural forces for what was happening to the three most popular Cubs, and what would eventually happen to the Cubs.

NOW FOR THE PLAYOFFS

Moving on from that, the Cubs have their work cut out for them.

WHAT THE CUBS HAVE GOING FOR THEM: Manager Lou Piniella has been here before, and his managerial experience should count for something. The Cubs also have the possibility of sending their two best starters, Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly, for four of this series. Also the Cubs possess a dangerous lead-off man (Alfonso Soriano) and middle-of-the line-up thunder (Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez.)

WHAT THE D'BACKS HAVE GOING FOR THEM: They had the most wins in the NL this year, but once the playoffs start every team starts at 0-0. The biggest thing the D'Backs have going for them is that they have the best starting pitcher (Brandon Webb, 18 wins) and the best closer (Jose Valverde, 47 saves) of the teams remaining the National League.

WHAT THE CUBS HAVE GOING AGAINST THEM: I'll come out and say it because out there some idiot already has said it. That stupid curse. As the playoffs come, so do the stupid national media types that allow this curse talk to continue. Also the Cubs possess the ultimate Wild Card in this series, the performance of Ryan Dempster. The Cubs closer has a three-something ERA in save situations, but in non-save situations his ERA is around five.

WHAT THE D'BACKS HAVE GOING AGAINST THEM: The D'Backs have loads of playoff inexperience up-and-down the line-up. They're manager will also be making his first playoff managing experience too. Also, after Webb, the D'Backs rotation doesn't look intimidating even though they do have Cub killer Doug Davis and one of the best hitting pitchers in Micah Owings.

NEWS AND NOTES:

That's all for now. Game time is less than three hours away. I'm nervous!


Game 1 Starting Lineups
Cubs D'backs
Soriano, lfYoung, cf
Theriot, ssDrew, ss
Lee, 1bByrnes, lf
Floyd, rfClark, 1b
Ramirez, 3bReynolds, 3b
DeRosa, 2bSalazar, rf
Jones, cfSnyder, c
Soto, cOjeda, 2b
Zambrano, pWebb, p

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

I'd Like To Say That I Saw It Coming

With the NL Wild Card game currently in progress and the first game of the NLDS a few days away, again I will take another look back at the 2007 Chicago Cubs.

I'd like to say that I saw this thing coming.

In February, I coined the phrase "This is the year that Cubdom strikes back," an obvious play on "The Emperor Strikes Back." However, back in October is when I began to believe.

On October 18, 2007 I posted a blog called "The Flashback, The Vision, The Prediction," which described a three-pronged event that was triggered by the Bears historic comeback. That blog is linked here for your viewing/reading pleasure. In short, here's what I had to say:
  • The Flashback refers to a conversation I had in which I said I'd land the girl of my dreams the day that the Bears, Bulls, Cubs and SIU win championships.
  • The Vision refers to a dream I had that night. In short, I was at Opening Day 2007 claiming that 2007 was the year and only myself and someone who was with me agreed.
  • The Predictions actually went eerily well. I shook of a "curse" that had been plaguing me, SIU won the MVC and went to the Sweet 16, the Bears won the NFC and went to the Super Bowl (and there were several Super Bowl songs about the Bears), and the Bulls did indeed knock off the Heat and advanced in the playoffs for the first time in the post-Jordan era. And the Cubs have completed phase one of their championship campaign by winning the NL Central.
THINKING ABOUT THE PLAYOFF ROSTER

With the Cubs officially in the playoffs, manager Lou Piniella has until Wednesday morning to turn in his playoff roster. The Cubs have a lot of questions to answer before then. In early September, I took a crack at what I thought the playoff roster should look like. Today, I have a different outlook.

STARTING PITCHERS (4)

Zambrano
Lilly
Hill
Marshall (if necessary)

It appears that the Cubs will go with a three-man rotation featuring Carlos Zambrano (games one and four), Ted Lilly (games two and five) and Rich Hill. But if it was up to me, I'd risk starting Jason Marquis, who was 8-3 at Wrigley Field in 2007. That would push Zambrano to game five (if necessary.) Big Z was 12-4 with a 3.06 ERA on the road compared to 6-9 with a 4.96 ERA at home.

Sean Marshall is more likely to make the playoff roster because of Marquis' recent struggles (mostly with his mechanics) and because he'd be another left handed pitcher out of the pen.

RELIEF PITCHERS (7)

Dempster
Howry
Eyre
Marmol
Wood
Wuertz
Hart

Despite his recent struggles, Ryan Dempster will likely be the Cubs closer in the playoffs with Bobby Howry and Scott Eyre as his primary set up men. Eyre has posted a stellar second half line: 2-0 with a 0.81 ERA in 28 second half games.

And despite every Cubs fan's request, Carlos Marmol will not be the Cubs closer. Instead, he will serve the role of bullpen ace when the Cubs need him in closer-like situations in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings.

Kevin Hart likely will take the spot that would have been reserved for Marquis. Hart was acquired from Baltimore in the trade that sent Freddy Bynum to the Orioles. In 11 innings of September work, Hart posted no record and a 0.82 ERA to go along with a 4.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio by striking out 13 and only walking four.

THE STARTING EIGHT (8)

Soto
D. Lee
DeRosa
Theriot
Ramirez
Soriano
Jones
Floyd

Even though I think Jason Kendall will get the starting nod, Geovany Soto is a better choice in my opinion. In his last 10 games, Soto is batting .424 (14-for-33) and has been stellar from a defensive standpoint.

Jacque Jones' play in the second half has turned him from whipping boy to center field savior. Jones hit .326 with a .369 on-base percentage with 45 RBI's. And to think, Jones was almost traded to the Marlins. My initial feelings about that non-trade is recapped here.

Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez will have to do in October what they did in September--and that is carry the Cubs offense by hitting the long ball. The three combined to hit 29 home runs in the final month.

THE BENCH (6)

Kendall
Ward
Fontenot
Murton
Pie
Cedeno

Configuring the bench will be the Cubs biggest challenge. Daryle Ward might not be 100%, leaving the opportunity that rookie Sam Fuld would take Ward's spot. Originally, I had reserved a spot for outfielder Craig Monroe, but upon further review I decided to give his spot to another one of the former whipping boys, infielder Ronny Cedeno who can play second base, third base and shortstop in a pinch. Matt Murton will likely start game two in right field against Diamondbacks lefty Doug Davis. Murton is hitting lefties at a .326 clip in his three year career. Felix Pie is your late inning speed and defense guy.

That's all, for now.

*Note: It is now 10:38 and the NL Wild Card play-in game/tiebreaker is still in progress (6-6 in the 12th inning)

**Editor's Note: I forgot the most important part that I really wanted to make note of. And that was something I mentioned to my mom (I mentioned it in the blog about "The Flashback, The Vision, The Prediction"):
To enforce my vision, my mother and I spoke today. I told her the following: "I was all about Joe Girardi coming to manage the Cubs. I thought that it'd be perfect that the local product, life-long Cub fan and former Cub leads this team out of a 98 year drought. But I thought about Piniella signing and I think it'd be more fitting that a guy named 'LOU' did the job." In response, my mother said "You know, I was thinking the EXACT SAME THING!"