Cubs-D'Backs Preview: Game Two

After Diamondbacks closer Jose Valverde recorded the final out of their 3-1 victory over the Cubs, Cubdom went into classic panic mode.

Locally, nationally and seemingly everywhere in between, the topic of the day was whether Cubs manager Lou Piniella made the right decision pulling starter Carlos Zambrano after only throwing 85 pitches.

It seems as if a majority of people out there believe that Piniella screwed the pooch on that one. The Chicago Sun-Times said it was a Lou-sing call. Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune said that Piniella's quick hook was costly, arguing that by not opting to use Jason Marquis in game four may come back to haunt the Cubs.

The verdict: I am going to side with Piniella on this one. Knowing that Zambrano is going to have to pitch game four, Piniella made the right move for the situation (being that the Cubs are going with a three-man rotation.) Piniella's been making these moves all year, at least he's been consistent and has a reasoning behind what he did--unlike past Cubs managers.

Also, take this into account. Coming into the game, Carlos Marmol, who took the loss in game one, had only given up a combined four runs in August and September. That's 30 2/3 innings with 43 strikeouts and an ERA under 1.20. It's not like he was bringing out Dave Veres, Antonio Alfonseca or Mark Guthrie.

Also take into account that the Cubs offense didn't score a run after the sixth inning. Big Z coulda pitched the rest of the game. The Cubs didn't score, and you can't win if you don't score!

Moving on from last nights game with these final notes:

• 1-10 with runners in scoring position is not going to get it done. There is hope for the Cubs offense who hit several line-drives right at people, which prevented potential runs from scoring. Hopefully tonight those shots will find some holes.
• Stephen Drew is officially on my baseball sh*t-list. Drew hit another clutch home run against the Cubs and made several Gold Glove caliber defensive plays which saved a few runs from scoring. And to top that off, he's a Drew--and with that comes BCB's great headline "Funny, he doesn't look Drewish."
• I'm just gonna come out and say it now--TBS broadcasting sucks. Did any of the head honchos realize that this is the MLB playoffs, not the NFL on FOX. Dick Stockton has no place in a baseball booth. I'd rather hear Tim McCarver's nonsense than Dick's. Take note of Dick's Dumb Remarks (might be a new segment, According to Dick):
• Tonight's starter for the D'Backs is Ron (not Doug) Davis.
• D'Backs outfielder Chris Young led MLB rookies in home runs (Ryan Braun and his 34 HRs would disagree.)
• The Cubs traded Michael Barrett for Jason Kendall. Funny, that's not how I remember it. Mikey B. was traded to San Diego for Rob Bowen in June, and in July Bowen was traded to Oakland for Kendall.

PREVIEWING TONIGHT'S GAME

I spent a lot of time reviewing game one, so I'll keep it relatively short for game two.

The Cubs will send Theodore Roosevelt Lilly A.K.A. "Mr. Neversmile" in what is definitely a must win game for the Cubs. Teddy truly has been the Cubs stopper this year with a 9-1 record in 16 starts after a Cubs loss.

The D'Backs will counter with Doug Davis. Davis is a certified Cub killer. He owns a 7-5 lifetime record with a 3.39 ERA against the Cubs. Davis out dueled Lilly in August at Chase Field, striking out eight Cubs in the process.

The Cubs will likely have a different looking line-up tonight.

• Mark DeRosa (career .301 against LHP) might bat second against Davis.
• Matt Murton (career .400 against Davis) will likely get the start in right field.
• Jacque Jones (career .294 against Davis) will probably start in center field and bat eighth.
• Kendall (career .313 against Davis) should get the nod behind the plate.

After the game ended, Cubs fan and producer of the documentary Chasing October: A Fan's Crusade Matt Liston left this bulletin on the popular networking site myspace.com:

It's only one game. This series will go all the way to game 5.

Take a breath...let's WIN tomorrow.

JUST BELIEVE,
Matt

I echo Matt's sentiments. Let's go out and win game two and shut everyone up!

Remember, "It's Gonna Happen!"

TAKING THE EXTRA BASE:

Sox fans now have another reason to hate Sun-Times columnist Jay Mariotti. Mariotti echoes the sentiments of people with thoughts with this simple statement: "Grow Up."

Game One Recap: D'Backs 3 Cubs 1

I waited four years for this.

Four years after I suffered the most heart breaking moment of my life, the Cubs came out and lost game one of the 2007 NLDS.

Pitching on both sides dominated the game. Brandon Webb (1-0) picked up the win when the Diamondbacks scored two runs off of reliever Carlos Marmol (0-1) in the bottom of the 7th inning.

The D'Backs scored two of their runs off of long home runs from Stephen Drew and Mark Reynolds. Drew, a .238 hitter in 2007 and Reynolds--known to D'Back fans as MarKKKKK--for striking out nine-straight times--tying a major league record.

Carlos Zambrano, who is now winless in his five playoff starts, was the "Big Z" that I wish could show up for 33 starts a year. He struck out eight and only walked one while throwing only 85 pitches.

While some will criticize manager Lou Piniella for pulling "Z" after only 85 pitches, take into consideration that he has to pitch game four (which WILL be necessary) and that Marmol was dominant in his first full campaign as a reliever.

Now, after Marmol's last two outings, I'm worried that "Marmol-aid" is tiring down the stretch. His slider is hanging more often than not--and when his slider hangs it gets hit and hit hard!

The Cubs offense could only scratch out one run off of Webb. Not surprising, especially after taking into consideration that Webb had a 4-1 career record against the Cubs coming into the NLDS.

The Cubs biggest offensive problem wasn't getting people on base, instead it was driving them in. They left 17 guys on base tonight. 17 under the "LOB" column in the scorecard isn't gonna win many games (if any!)

I'll be honest, I didn't give the Cubs much of a chance against B-Webb (knowing his past record againt the Cubs) and while taking that into consideration---that makes game two even bigger.

The Cubs will throw Ted Lilly a.k.a. "Mr. Neversmile" against the D'Backs Doug Davis--whose career ERA against the Cubs is under four.

Expect some changes in the Cub line-up tomorrow night. I think Mark DeRosa will bat second tomorrow night (batting .283 against lefties) with Jacque Jones hitting 8th and Matt Murton getting the start in right field (batting .319 against lefties this year.)

Contrary to popular belief, I'm not going to get too down about this loss.

MY PREDICTION: The sun will rise tomorrow, and the Cubs will win game two!

Don't give up the faith!

Playoff Preview: NLDS Game One

And then there was one.

After watching the Red Sox end their 86-year championship drought in 2004 and watching their cross-town rival White Sox celebrate the end of their own championship drought with a ticker-tape parade downtown, the Chicago Cubs will take their first step towards their first World Series since 1908 tonight at Chase Field when they visit the NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks.

The D'Backs will go into this series with the Cubs owning the NL's best record with 90 wins, despite being outscored. Seems like a sabermetrical aberration to me--but that's another discussion for another day.

This will be the Cubs first playoff appearance since 2003, and already "Curse Talk" has begun.

This morning's edition of SportsCenter dedicated 10 minutes revisiting billy goats, black cats and Bartmans. Several mlb.com reports lead with talk about "reversing the curse." And to be honest, there are a lot of Cubs fans who are waiting for the other shoe to drop.

I, myself did not believe in curses until after the 2003 season. And I didn't even fall for it after the Bartman game.

I truly began to believe in what some would call "nonsense" after a completely healthy Kerry Wood collapsed in front of my eyes.

When Mark Prior a.k.a "Mr. Perfect Mechanics" and Wood spent major chunks of the 2004 season on the disabled list. And Sammy Sosa found himself on the DL with "the sneeze heard 'round 'The Chi'."

There was just too much evidence in front of my eyes at that point to not credit supernatural forces for what was happening to the three most popular Cubs, and what would eventually happen to the Cubs.

NOW FOR THE PLAYOFFS

Moving on from that, the Cubs have their work cut out for them.

WHAT THE CUBS HAVE GOING FOR THEM: Manager Lou Piniella has been here before, and his managerial experience should count for something. The Cubs also have the possibility of sending their two best starters, Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly, for four of this series. Also the Cubs possess a dangerous lead-off man (Alfonso Soriano) and middle-of-the line-up thunder (Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez.)

WHAT THE D'BACKS HAVE GOING FOR THEM: They had the most wins in the NL this year, but once the playoffs start every team starts at 0-0. The biggest thing the D'Backs have going for them is that they have the best starting pitcher (Brandon Webb, 18 wins) and the best closer (Jose Valverde, 47 saves) of the teams remaining the National League.

WHAT THE CUBS HAVE GOING AGAINST THEM: I'll come out and say it because out there some idiot already has said it. That stupid curse. As the playoffs come, so do the stupid national media types that allow this curse talk to continue. Also the Cubs possess the ultimate Wild Card in this series, the performance of Ryan Dempster. The Cubs closer has a three-something ERA in save situations, but in non-save situations his ERA is around five.

WHAT THE D'BACKS HAVE GOING AGAINST THEM: The D'Backs have loads of playoff inexperience up-and-down the line-up. They're manager will also be making his first playoff managing experience too. Also, after Webb, the D'Backs rotation doesn't look intimidating even though they do have Cub killer Doug Davis and one of the best hitting pitchers in Micah Owings.

NEWS AND NOTES:

• I've got tonight's tentative starting line-up (courtesy of BCB) and I'll post it below.
• ESPN doesn't want the Cubs to win the World Series, go figure. ESPN doesn't care about sports if it doesn't involve the Yankees, Red Sox or Duke Basketball.
• Hire Jim Essian! gives ESPN the finger in this piece.
• Not so fast, my friend. The respectable Jayson Stark plays the "Why Not Us?" card. He thinks the Cubs can win this thing!
  
• For those of you who can't make it out to your local watering hole to watch the game, there is a Cubs drinking game. Play at your own risk!

That's all for now. Game time is less than three hours away. I'm nervous!

Game 1 Starting Lineups
Cubs	D'backs
Soriano, lf	Young, cf
Theriot, ss	Drew, ss
Lee, 1b	Byrnes, lf
Floyd, rf	Clark, 1b
Ramirez, 3b	Reynolds, 3b
DeRosa, 2b	Salazar, rf
Jones, cf	Snyder, c
Soto, c	Ojeda, 2b
Zambrano, p	Webb, p

I'd Like To Say That I Saw It Coming

With the NL Wild Card game currently in progress and the first game of the NLDS a few days away, again I will take another look back at the 2007 Chicago Cubs.

I'd like to say that I saw this thing coming.

In February, I coined the phrase "This is the year that Cubdom strikes back," an obvious play on "The Emperor Strikes Back." However, back in October is when I began to believe.

On October 18, 2007 I posted a blog called "The Flashback, The Vision, The Prediction," which described a three-pronged event that was triggered by the Bears historic comeback. That blog is linked here for your viewing/reading pleasure. In short, here's what I had to say:

• The Flashback refers to a conversation I had in which I said I'd land the girl of my dreams the day that the Bears, Bulls, Cubs and SIU win championships.
  
• The Vision refers to a dream I had that night. In short, I was at Opening Day 2007 claiming that 2007 was the year and only myself and someone who was with me agreed.
• The Predictions actually went eerily well. I shook of a "curse" that had been plaguing me, SIU won the MVC and went to the Sweet 16, the Bears won the NFC and went to the Super Bowl (and there were several Super Bowl songs about the Bears), and the Bulls did indeed knock off the Heat and advanced in the playoffs for the first time in the post-Jordan era. And the Cubs have completed phase one of their championship campaign by winning the NL Central.

THINKING ABOUT THE PLAYOFF ROSTER

With the Cubs officially in the playoffs, manager Lou Piniella has until Wednesday morning to turn in his playoff roster. The Cubs have a lot of questions to answer before then. In early September, I took a crack at what I thought the playoff roster should look like. Today, I have a different outlook.

STARTING PITCHERS (4)

Zambrano
Lilly
Hill
Marshall (if necessary)

It appears that the Cubs will go with a three-man rotation featuring Carlos Zambrano (games one and four), Ted Lilly (games two and five) and Rich Hill. But if it was up to me, I'd risk starting Jason Marquis, who was 8-3 at Wrigley Field in 2007. That would push Zambrano to game five (if necessary.) Big Z was 12-4 with a 3.06 ERA on the road compared to 6-9 with a 4.96 ERA at home.

Sean Marshall is more likely to make the playoff roster because of Marquis' recent struggles (mostly with his mechanics) and because he'd be another left handed pitcher out of the pen.

RELIEF PITCHERS (7)

Dempster
Howry
Eyre
Marmol
Wood
Wuertz
Hart

Despite his recent struggles, Ryan Dempster will likely be the Cubs closer in the playoffs with Bobby Howry and Scott Eyre as his primary set up men. Eyre has posted a stellar second half line: 2-0 with a 0.81 ERA in 28 second half games.

And despite every Cubs fan's request, Carlos Marmol will not be the Cubs closer. Instead, he will serve the role of bullpen ace when the Cubs need him in closer-like situations in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings.

Kevin Hart likely will take the spot that would have been reserved for Marquis. Hart was acquired from Baltimore in the trade that sent Freddy Bynum to the Orioles. In 11 innings of September work, Hart posted no record and a 0.82 ERA to go along with a 4.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio by striking out 13 and only walking four.

THE STARTING EIGHT (8)

Soto
D. Lee
DeRosa
Theriot
Ramirez
Soriano
Jones
Floyd

Even though I think Jason Kendall will get the starting nod, Geovany Soto is a better choice in my opinion. In his last 10 games, Soto is batting .424 (14-for-33) and has been stellar from a defensive standpoint.

Jacque Jones' play in the second half has turned him from whipping boy to center field savior. Jones hit .326 with a .369 on-base percentage with 45 RBI's. And to think, Jones was almost traded to the Marlins. My initial feelings about that non-trade is recapped here.

Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez will have to do in October what they did in September--and that is carry the Cubs offense by hitting the long ball. The three combined to hit 29 home runs in the final month.

THE BENCH (6)

Kendall
Ward
Fontenot
Murton
Pie
Cedeno

Configuring the bench will be the Cubs biggest challenge. Daryle Ward might not be 100%, leaving the opportunity that rookie Sam Fuld would take Ward's spot. Originally, I had reserved a spot for outfielder Craig Monroe, but upon further review I decided to give his spot to another one of the former whipping boys, infielder Ronny Cedeno who can play second base, third base and shortstop in a pinch. Matt Murton will likely start game two in right field against Diamondbacks lefty Doug Davis. Murton is hitting lefties at a .326 clip in his three year career. Felix Pie is your late inning speed and defense guy.

That's all, for now.

*Note: It is now 10:38 and the NL Wild Card play-in game/tiebreaker is still in progress (6-6 in the 12th inning)

**Editor's Note: I forgot the most important part that I really wanted to make note of. And that was something I mentioned to my mom (I mentioned it in the blog about "The Flashback, The Vision, The Prediction"):

To enforce my vision, my mother and I spoke today. I told her the following: "I was all about Joe Girardi coming to manage the Cubs. I thought that it'd be perfect that the local product, life-long Cub fan and former Cub leads this team out of a 98 year drought. But I thought about Piniella signing and I think it'd be more fitting that a guy named 'LOU' did the job." In response, my mother said "You know, I was thinking the EXACT SAME THING!"

We Are The (NL Central Division) Champions

What goes around, comes around.

The Cubs 6-0 win over the Reds coupled with the Padres 6-3 victory over the Brewers made the Cubs champions of the National League Central Division for the first time since 2003.

The Cubs clinching victory came 159 games after the Cubs stumbled out of the gate in that very same Great American Ball Park. Even Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano acknowledged that.

“This one was very important to me. We started the season here. Before the game, I was thinking: Here we started, and here we finish," Big Z said about clinching in Cincinnati.

Zambrano (18-12, 3.95 ERA) pitched seven strong innings of shutout baseball, en route to his career-high 18th victory.

Left fielder Alfonso Soriano set the tone with a two-strike lead-off home run off Reds starter Bronson Arroyo. Derrek Lee would later add a two-run homer, and that is all the scoring the Cubs would need.

Meanwhile, in Milwaukee, former Cub Greg Maddux picked up the victory over the Brewers when closer Trevor Hoffman struck out Rickie Weeks picking up the save and clinching the Cubs playoff berth.

In a sense, both Zambrano and Maddux pitched the Cubs into the playoffs on Friday night. How's that for stars aligning?

Tonight, I want to reflect on this year.

Watching the 2007 Cubs was like watching a movie about the 2007 Cubs, with the multitude of story lines.

$300 million worth of new players and coaches including the new face of the franchise, manager Lou Piniella. An ownership in flux, led by interim president and former marketing guru John McDonough.

And when the season started, the Brewers raced out to a 24-10 record and the Cubs fell nine games below .500.

While some thought he was asleep at the wheel for the first two months, Piniella was really unraveling the mess brought to him by General Manager Jim Hendry and turned the Cubs into a winning ball club.

It took a hamstring injury to move Soriano from center field to left field. It took a clubhouse fight at the hands of Zambrano for the Cubs to dump fan favorite catcher Michael Barrett. The poor play of Wade Miller and Cesar Izturis combined with the positive contributions of Sean Marshall and Ryan Theriot led to Miller's demise and Izturis' trade to Pittsburgh.

And really, that's where the major difference between Piniella and former Cubs manager Dusty Baker is. Both Piniella and Baker said that they liked young players, however only Piniella walked the walk.

When things went wrong early, Piniella demanded players that could "pitch and catch the damn ball." Everyone from Cubs fans to sports talk radio hosts laughed at Piniella's expense, but in the end it was Piniella and the Cubs having the last laugh.

If not for other strong candidates for Manager of the Year, Piniella would be a shoe in. The way he mixed veteran star power, youthful exuberance and a well-timed tirade will not soon be forgotten by Cubdom.

One of the most memorable Piniella moments (besides the tirade that "kick"-started the Cubs second half run) was when he called for Theriot to lay down a suicide squeeze in the 9th inning of a 1-1 ballgame against the Chicago White Sox and their ace closer Bobby Jenks. It was successful, and the Cubs would win that game and sweep that series in one of the turning points of the 2007 season.

But the manager can only get so much credit. Really, all Piniella did was put his players in the best position to win.

Free-agent signee Mark DeRosa proved to be the Cubs MVP (Most Versatile Player.) DeRosa made at least one appearance at each position in the infield, as well as both left and right field. As the year went on, DeRosa would become one of the Cubs clubhouse and on field leaders.

Carlos Marmol, who baseball analyst Steve Stone last year said that Marmol was miscast as a starting pitcher and was better suited as a late inning pitcher, proved Stone to be right. Marmol excelled as Piniella's bullpen ace, notching 95 strikeouts in 68 and 1/3 innings.

Jason Marquis, another free agent signee, put his horrid 2006 behind him and posted a 12-9 record with a 4.43 ERA as a starter--proving (for one year at least) that his 6.02 ERA in '06 was a fluke.

Ted Lilly, who was signed while Hendry was in a hospital bed, put up ace-like numbers (15-8) and was 9-2 after a Cubs loss.

The group that won't get as much credit as they should is the Tribune Company. For years, Cubs fans (like myself) pined for the Tribsters to spend the cash that the fans put into that team. Crane Kenney and Dennis FitzSimons deserve a lot of the credit for allowing McDonough and Hendry to spend the right amount of money on the right guys

LOOKING AHEAD

The Cubs will now head out west to play the Arizona Diamondbacks, winners of the NL West and will throw out Zambrano and Lilly in games one and two of the NLDS, which is scheduled to begin on Wednesday night in Arizona.

Winning the division was only the first step. The magic number now stands at 11. 11 being the number of games the Cubs need to win in order to win their first World Series since 1908.

Miscellaneous Baseball Thoughts

Miscellaneous baseball thoughts from Wednesday September 26th 2007.

AN OPEN LETTER TO TONY LARUSSA:

Dear Tony,

Thank you for beating the Brewers tonight. If the Cubs end up winning the NL Central, next time you're in Chicago, drinks are on me. And so is the cab.

Sincerely,

Cubdom

THE THREE PHASES OF THE TRUE CUBS FAN:

THE ETERNAL OPTIMIST: Yeah, the Cubs have lost the last two games but look on the bright side. The magic number is down to three. Meaning any combination of three Cubs wins or Brewers losses makes the Cubs the NL Central champions. The Brewers have to play the Padres who are fighting for their playoff lives and will likely face Chris Young, Greg Maddux and Jake Peavy. The Cubs go to Cincinnati to face the Reds who are already eliminated, and without their two biggest power threats: Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr.

THE PESSIMIST: The Cubs are gonna blow it. You know why? Because they're the Cubs and they always blow it. It's what they've always done and it's what they will always do. They always find a new and interesting way to blow it, so at least we all know it will be entertaining!

THE REALIST: With four games left and the magic number standing at three, the Cubs chances at winning the division stand above 90%. The Cubs have played way below their potential and have three of their best pitchers going for them this weekend against the Reds. They also have a manager who has been in this situation before, and unlike some managers, will put the importance of the game at hand above retaliation.

RANDOM THOUGHTS:

• If the Padres can somehow take three of four games from Milwaukee, Cubs fans might have to take back all of those nasty things they said about the Padres in 1984 (at least for one weekend.)
• Miami's Joe Robbie/Pro Player/Dolphin Stadium is the new house of horrors for Chicago sports fans. Between the Bears and the Cubs, they are winless in their last 11 games against the Miami franchise--and are winless in 2007 in Dolphin Stadium.
• If the Cubs can't beat Dontrelle Willis (who entered Tuesday's game 9-15 with a 5.32 ERA) or Daniel Barone (1-3, 5.30 ERA entering Wednesday) then how are they gonna beat Cub killers Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo?
• Also, why do I have a feeling that former Cub Buck Coats is gonna come back and bite the hand that once fed him.
• I know that Steve Trachsel is scheduled to start against the Marlins on Thursday. I don't think that's a good idea. Start Rich Hill on normal rest--every game counts--especially ones that could decide the fate of the NL Central.

That was one moment inside this Cub fan's head.

I've Seen This Episode Before....Part Two

A week ago I posted this blog drawing a comparison between the 2007 Cubs team going for the NL Central title and the 2004 Cubs going for the NL Wild Card and how both Cubs teams had to play the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field in a critical series.

That blog was titled "I've seen this episode before...and I didn't like the way it ended the first time." This is part two of that blog.

Tonight I will compare this Cubs team and the 2003 Cubs.

With a magic number of four, the Cubs go to Miami to play the Florida Marlins with their playoff fates in their own hands.

And today, just like in 2003, they laid an egg when they had an opportunity to move one step closer to the ultimate goal of Cubdom.

Tonight's 4-2 loss isn't as disheartening as any of their losses in the 2003 NLCS, but this could rank up there if the Cubs don't make the playoffs.

The Cubs offense, which blew up in the three game sweep against the Pirates at Wrigley this weekend, just blew tonight against Dontrelle Willis and the Marlins.

The Cubs runs came off the bat of Craig Monroe, whose eighth inning two-run homer off of Willis. But that was all the scoring the Cubs would do.

They mustered only three hits off of Willis, Lee Gardener and Taylor Tankersley who picked up his first save by getting Cliff Floyd to fly out deep to left center to end the ball game.

As of right now, the Brewers look like they'll move within two games of the first place Cubs because they're leading the hapless Cardinals 7-1.

With the magic number standing at four, it doesn't look like the Cubs will clinch against the Marlins (which would be poetic justice in my eyes.) Instead, this will likely be one of the most excruciatingly painful weeks in recent Cubs history.

It'd be quite beneficial for the Cubs to clinch sooner rather than later so they can set their rotation for the first round of the playoffs. But at this point, you've gotta get there first!

There are still two more games against the Marlins and the Cubs could conceivably win those two games and cut the magic number in half without any help from the Cardinals.

It's more likely that the Cubs will clinch in Cincy, but it won't get any easier. The Reds have set up their rotation so the Cubs face both of the Reds aces, Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang.

Still, the Cubs have their work cut out for them and they control their own destiny.

To quote Al Davis, "Just win, baby!"