Big Series Win Kicks Off September For The Cubs

Down 5-1, it would have been easy to give up on this team. In fact, I did. I was ready to chalk this one in the 'L' column and mark one game off the lead, but then I remembered something I said the other day.

"Every time I have faith in this team, they break my heart. Every time I don't, they surprise me."

The Cubs surprised me today with their 6-5 come from behind win over the Houston Astros.

Rich Hill struggled today, likely still feeling the after-effects of Michigan's devestating loss to Div. 1-AA Appalachian State. He only went five innings giving up five runs while striking out five and walking four.

Though props to "Richie Rich" who clearly sent a message to the Astros by plunking Lance Berkman leading off the fifth inning after Woody Williams hit both Derrek Lee and Jason Kendall.

Even more props to the Cubs bullpen with another stellar outing this afternoon. Michael Wuertz, Kerry Wood, Scott Eyre, Carlos Marmol and Ryan Dempster gave up 0 runs after Hill's departure. Marmol pitched one-third of an inning and picked up the win. Dempster pitched a 1-2-3 top of the ninth earning his 25th save.

D. Lee obviously read my blog the other day and responded with a three hit, three RBI game, including the game-winning home run, a two run shot off Houston reliever Chad Qualls.

For the second time this week, Matt "The Bat" Murton "For Certain" came off the bench and hit a home run. Murton looks like he's the type of hitter who excels in the second-half of the season. At least, that's what these stats show me.

This game wasn't without its fair share of drama.

Home plate umpire Tony Randazzo tossed Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez after a questionable called third strike. In Randazzo's defense, he had been calling that pitch a strike all day. However, in the defense of "The Ram", it wasn't in the strike zone any of those times.

Jacque Jones made the play of the day with a diving catch of a sinking liner that saved a run and kept the Cubs deficit at one run. Jones dove head first between Ryan Theriot going back and in front of a sprinting Alfonso Soriano (who was playing no doubles deep in left) to make (arguably) the biggest catch this year.

Not bad for a guy who spent a majority of his career as a corner outfielder. I guess we shouldn't take for granted that he came up in the Twins organization as a center fielder until Torii Hunter came around.

I haven't been JJ's biggest fan, but he's done everything right since the All-Star break. He's stayed out of trouble with the fans. He's played Gold Glove caliber defense. And he's hit to the tune of .321 in the second half. He looks like a completely different player, this one is worth the 3-year $15 million the Cubs are paying him.

Think about it, the Cubs have 27 more games of pressure packed baseball ahead of them. Can they handle 27 games full of this much drama?

Can their fans?

And what about October.

HOW THE CENTRAL WILL BE WON

The NL Central will be decided in part by the bottom half of the division. The Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds.

The Brewers will play the Astros, Pirates and Reds nine times in the final month. They are 7-2 against the Astros and 11-5 against the Pirates, but only 3-6 against the Reds and 4-7 against the Cardinals. The Brewers play a majority of their games at home down the stretch where they are flat out dominant. However, as dominant as they are at home is as futile as they are on the road.

The Cardinals will play the Astros, Pirates and Reds 14 times in the final month. This is where the Cards can make their final push. They are 9-3 against the Reds, 6-4 against the Pirates and 7-5 against the Astros. In fact, the Cards have a winning record against all of the NL Central teams, except the Cubs. They play the Cubs four times in the final month, more on that to come.

Statistically, the Cubs look to have the toughest road to the division title. They have to play three more games against the Astros, who are 6-6 against the Cubs. They have seven games against the Pirates, who are 5-4 against the Cubs this year. The Reds pose the biggest threat to the Cubs hopes. They are 7-5 against the Cubs and host the Cubs in the final three games of the regular season.

Another important series the Cubs have against a non-contender is a three game series against the Florida Marlins (Sept. 25-27.) The Cubs will be looking to avenge a three game sweep at the hands of the Fightin' Fish earlier this season. Again, that was before the "Dugout Slugout" and "Sweet Uncle Lou's" classic tirade.

Hopefully, those games won't matter. But it's the Cubs, so I doubt it.

The most pivotal games the Cubs have remaining are the games against the Cards. Who would have thought the biggest rivalry in the National League would have such big implications down the stretch.

The Cubs have owned the Cardinals since the days that Dusty Baker came to town. The two play five times in a seven day span, including a four game weekend series that includes a Saturday double header.

This could be the biggest set of games these two have played against one another since the five game series in 2003, which marked the beginning of the Cards demise and the Cubs ascent to the 2003 NL Central title.

With the recent addition of Steve Trachsel, manager Lou Piniella will set up the rotation where Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano faces the Cards twice that week. "Big Z" will likely pitch the make-up game on September 10th in Wrigley and one of the games of Saturday's double header.

The Cubs welcome the Los Angeles Dodgers for a four game set. The Dodgers took two out of three from the Cubs earlier in the year. But that was a different Cubs team--and Dodger team for that matter. Trachsel will make his second debut as a Cub this series against L.A.

With 27 games left, I figure the Cubs need to live by one baseball adage: win the majority of your games at home and go .500 on the road. If the Cubs go 8-8 on the road and 6-5 at home it will put them at 84 wins. If the other two teams do the same, the Cubs will win the NL Central title and march on to the playoffs.

Here's hoping that it happens.